The Texas Housing Market Forecast: Trends Every Fix-and-Flip Investor Should Watch
Texas isn’t “hot” or “cold” right now. It’s uneven.
Some submarkets are clearing inventory and stabilizing. Others are still working through price cuts, longer days on market, and buyers who have zero patience for overpriced flips. If you’re running a fix-and-flip business, the forecast matters for one reason: it changes the math on your next buy.
Here are the Texas trends we’d keep on the dashboard before you go finding fix-and-flip properties in 2026.
How Texas Housing Inventory Impacts Fix-and-Flip Deals
More supply is not bad for flippers, it just shifts where profits come from. When buyers have choices, your margins come from buying right and executing clean, not from “market lift.”
The Dallas Fed’s Texas Economic Indicators update noted Texas inventory around 5.1 months of supply in September 2025, a level that signals a more balanced environment than the peak frenzy years. If you’re operating in Houston, the Dallas Fed’s Houston indicators also highlighted inventory around 5.2 months in mid-2025, reinforcing the same theme: supply has been rebuilding.
What to do with that as a flipper:
- Stop assuming multiple-offer exits. Underwrite for negotiation.
- Tighten your ARV assumptions and condition adjustments.
- Make your product clearly “better” than nearby listings, not just similar.
If you want a clean way to pressure-test your assumptions, our walkthrough on accurately evaluating ARV and rehab budgets is a good place to start.
How Days on Market Impact Fix-and-Flip Profit Margins
When homes sit longer, holding costs stop being a rounding error. They become part of your deal thesis, especially if your exit depends on a narrow buyer band or a tight pricing window.
Nationally, Realtor.com has been tracking a shift back toward more normal timelines, with homes taking longer to close year over year in late 2025. Locally, Houston’s MLS update showed homes averaging 60 days on market in November 2025, up from the prior year. That kind of drift doesn’t just slow your cash cycle, it increases interest, utilities, insurance, and carrying costs.
The practical fix is to underwrite with padding. If your numbers only work at 30 days on market, it’s a fragile deal. This is also why many investors use real estate fix-and-flip loans that match the realities of renovation timelines rather than trying to force a conventional timeline onto a property that still needs work.
Mortgage Rate Trends and Their Impact on Texas Fix-and-Flip Exits
Rates don’t need to spike to change your outcomes. They just need to stay elevated long enough to keep buyers payment-sensitive and quick to walk away from anything that feels overpriced.
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.22% as of December 11, 2025. Realtor.com’s 2026 outlook expects rates to average around 6.3%, with only modest relief. In that environment, your flip competes on value and monthly payment optics, not on vibes.
For investors flipping houses with hard money, this is where discipline pays. Elevated rates make buyers more selective, and small ARV mistakes get punished faster. The solution isn’t to over-upgrade, it’s to buy right, keep rehab scope buyer-relevant, and price based on what the market is actually closing, not what it used to.
How to Underwrite Fix-and-Flip Properties in Texas in a Slow-Growth Market
The most realistic base case for 2026 is not a surge. It’s a grind with pockets of opportunity.
Realtor.com projects existing-home sales up 1.7% in 2026 and home prices up 2.2%, with inventory continuing to recover. Other forecasts are more bullish, like NAR’s outlook calling for a larger jump in sales activity. The point isn’t which number “wins.” The point is that forecasters broadly agree we’re not heading back to easy-mode housing.
So the playbook shifts:
- Build margin at acquisition.
- Keep rehab scope tight and buyer-relevant.
- Avoid the trap of “over-improving” for the neighborhood.
If you want to spot where costs tend to ambush margins in a slower market, read how to spot hidden costs before purchasing a fix-and-flip.
Texas Building Permits and Supply: A Key Forecast Signal for Flippers
New listings aren’t only coming from resale owners. They’re also coming from builders competing for the same payment-capped buyers.
The Dallas Fed noted single-family permits in Texas slipping in mid-2025 while sales remained sluggish, a reminder that affordability is still the constraint even when supply shifts. For flippers, the takeaway is simple: watch where builders are discounting or buying down rates, because that can cap your resale price in nearby neighborhoods.
Fix-and-Flip Loans Texas Investors Use to Stay Competitive
In Texas, good deals don’t wait for slow paperwork. Speed is still leverage.
If you’re comparing Texas fix-and-flip house investment lenders, look for three things: clarity on total costs, underwriting that respects the deal, and timelines that match how fast Texas moves. Our fix-and-flip loan program is built for exactly that, and if you want to understand terms for your next Texas fix-and-flip house investment loan, you can start by Exploring Our Rates.
Because the forecast doesn’t kill flips. Thin margins do.
Profitable fix-and-flip Texas investors in 2026 will win the same way they always do: disciplined buying, realistic underwriting, and financing that keeps projects moving.